David SimsEssays

COVID-19 Statistics and Predictions

by David Sims

THE DATA from four days ago gave the total number of US coronavirus-related deaths as 16498, a rise of 1736 during the preceding 24 hours. The daily percentage increase was 11.8%. The corresponding doubling time was 6.23 days (or 150 hours). The best-fit logistical function is

D = 34963.99 − 35091.1262 / { 1 + (T/101.5447)^20.62356 }

where T is days into the year 2020 and D is the cumulative number of US coronavirus-related deaths.

As compared with our last curve-fit, the new curve-fit has a higher predicted number of deaths, about 34964 as opposed to about 31223. The inflection point is found at T=101.06796, whereat dD/dT=1785 and D=16567.

Latest update: Both the four-parameter logistics curve and the five-parameter logistics curve now predict an ultimate death total for the US from covid-19 between 36,000 and 37,000.

3PL (basic logistical curve model from calculator)
D(81-105) = 32182.329 / [ 1 + 1.2777e10 exp(−0.23116586 T) ]

4PL
D(78-105) = 36826.99
− 36964.1862 / [ 1 + (T/101.969)^20.34319 ]

5PL
D(78-105) = 36421.3
− 36562.0271 / [ 1 + (T/102.1817)^20.28414 ]^1.048086

Number of deaths as of T=105.0: 23604

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Source: Author

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Panadechi
Panadechi
15 April, 2020 3:31 am

El Coronavirus solo es un fenómeno sanitario Plan-Pandemia circunstancial, lo importante para los blancos es: Punto 1: El etnocentrismo es la fuerza vital siprema de supervivencia de cualquier civilización y de individuos biológicos similares. Punto 2: La unión hace la fuerza, el nivel de eficacia se evidencia de la siguiente forma: (Homogeneidad Nivel de IQ). Eso implica mayor homogeneidad> Cohesión social, identidad, fortaleza, lealtad, felicidad por lo tanto seguridad. Y determinar el nivel de IQ se podria determinar el nivel de desarrollo ya sea tecnologico y social. Las tres variables, etnocentrismo, homogeneidad, IQ son fundamentales para una civilización exitosa. Conclusión los asiáticos del este, las tres variables lo que les da una extraordinaria ventaja sobre occidente, una excepción de europa del este-Rusia Occidente cada ves mas multicultural (menos blancos) ha… Read more »

Sethmoto101
Sethmoto101
1 May, 2020 10:59 pm

Linked is a sad story of a 32 year old nurse, a negroid, who died of Covid19 in LA. What’s disturbing is how the infection carrier, who survived, was able to access the high-end memory care facility at Silverado Beverly-LA where she worked, due to corporate fiat, despite the nurse noting Covid19 symptoms requiring hospital admittance instead, and lock-down rules already in place in California prohibiting his admittance to the facility. The carrier is a supposedly “prominent” 69-year-old doctor from the tony and very jewish upper East Side of Manhattan, with a daughter living in London. The doomed nurse texted her sister “I’m so mad! He came from New York and (I’ve) come to find out his damn daughter flew from London to New York to fly him here to… Read more »