# COVID-19 Statistics and Predictions

by David Sims

THE DATA from four days ago gave the total number of US coronavirus-related deaths as 16498, a rise of 1736 during the preceding 24 hours. The daily percentage increase was 11.8%. The corresponding doubling time was 6.23 days (or 150 hours). The best-fit logistical function is

D = 34963.99 − 35091.1262 / { 1 + (T/101.5447)^20.62356 }

where T is days into the year 2020 and D is the cumulative number of US coronavirus-related deaths.

As compared with our last curve-fit, the new curve-fit has a higher predicted number of deaths, about 34964 as opposed to about 31223. The inflection point is found at T=101.06796, whereat dD/dT=1785 and D=16567.

Latest update: Both the four-parameter logistics curve and the five-parameter logistics curve now predict an ultimate death total for the US from covid-19 between 36,000 and 37,000.

3PL (basic logistical curve model from calculator)
D(81-105) = 32182.329 / [ 1 + 1.2777e10 exp(−0.23116586 T) ]

4PL
D(78-105) = 36826.99
− 36964.1862 / [ 1 + (T/101.969)^20.34319 ]

5PL
D(78-105) = 36421.3
− 36562.0271 / [ 1 + (T/102.1817)^20.28414 ]^1.048086

Number of deaths as of T=105.0: 23604

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Source: Author

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